Feature families
Modern football models blend structured and derived features:
- Form curves — rolling 10-match points, xG for/against, shot-creating actions
- Rest & travel — days since last fixture, distance travelled, altitude change
- Referee profile — historical card and penalty rates by referee
- Market signal — implied probabilities extracted from opening lines as a prior, not a target
Calibration
Raw model probabilities drift. A calibration window (e.g. rolling 200 fixtures) applies isotonic or Platt scaling so that events flagged 60% actually occur ~60% of the time.