What the archive shows
Across 3,140 archived fixtures from the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, home sides won 43.9% of matches, drew 24.1% and lost 32.0%. The home-side edge has held within a ±1.2 pt band across the last three seasons.
Why it matters analytically
A persistent baseline like this is exactly what a probabilistic model calibrates against. When our 1X2 distribution deviates from the historical baseline, the deviation itself carries information: either the fixture-level signals (form, H2H, injuries) overwhelm venue, or the market is mis-pricing venue effect.
Takeaway
Home advantage is not disappearing. It is smaller for elite clubs facing mid-table opposition and larger for lower-tier home sides against travelling favourites — a shape our calibration weights already track.