League-level scoring distribution
Sampling 4,820 settled fixtures across nine top-tier leagues, the Over 2.5 goals share was 54.2% league-wide. But the distribution is wider than the headline suggests:
- Eredivisie: 61%
- Bundesliga: 58%
- Premier League: 56%
- La Liga: 51%
- Ligue 1: 47%
What the model does with this
Our totals model does not treat 2.5 as a universal cut. It learns per-league baselines and updates them on a rolling window, so a fixture in a low-scoring league is measured against its own history — not a global average.
Takeaway
League context is a first-class feature, not a lookup. Calibration improves whenever the totals band is normalised against the league's own recent distribution.