Deep Progression vs. Progressive Passes: Ball Movement
Deep Progression tracks how far the ball moves upfield from a team's own half, regardless of method. Progressive Passes specifically measure successful passes that advance the ball significantly towards the opponent's goal.
Deep Progression
CoachShort definition
Total distance the ball travels towards the opponent's goal, originating in a team's own half.
Primary use
Use Deep Progression when you want to understand how effectively a team moves the ball out of its own half and establishes attacking territory, regardless of the method.
Progressive Passes
CoachShort definition
Successful passes that move the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal, or 5 yards into the final third.
Primary use
Opt for Progressive Passes to specifically analyze a team's or player's ability to advance the ball towards the opponent's goal through successful passing actions, breaking opposition lines.
Side-by-side comparison
| Criterion | Deep Progression | Progressive Passes |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Total distance the ball travels towards the opponent's goal, originating in a team's own half. | Successful passes that move the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal, or 5 yards into the final third. |
| What it measures | Overall territorial gain from deep, encompassing all forms of ball movement. | A team's ability to advance the ball through passing, breaking lines and progressing play. |
| Data inputs | Ball position coordinates at the start and end of any sequence originating in a team's own half. | Pass events, including origin and destination coordinates, and pass outcome. |
| Typical use | Assessing a team's overall ability to exit their own half and establish attacking territory. | Evaluating a player's or team's passing contribution to moving the ball upfield. |
| Strengths | Captures all forms of forward momentum, including carries, dribbles, and set pieces. | Highlights deliberate, successful passing actions that advance play. |
| Weaknesses | Doesn't differentiate between effective build-up and aimless long balls that travel far. | Can miss significant ball progression via carries or dribbles, focusing solely on passes. |
| Common misuses | Interpreting high numbers as always indicating effective attacking play without context. | Overlooking players who carry the ball forward effectively but make fewer progressive passes. |
| Where it excels | Understanding a team's general territorial dominance and ability to get out of their own half. | Pinpointing specific players and patterns for breaking defensive lines with passes. |
Advantages · Deep Progression
- Holistic view of ball progression from deep.
- Accounts for carries, dribbles, and set pieces.
- Useful for analyzing defensive transitions and counter-attacks.
- Highlights teams that quickly move the ball upfield.
Advantages · Progressive Passes
- Focuses on intentional, successful passing.
- Identifies playmakers who break lines.
- Better for evaluating midfield and defensive passing roles.
- Reveals patterns of ball progression through passing.
Limitations · Deep Progression
- Doesn't distinguish between quality and quantity of progression.
- Can be inflated by long, speculative clearances.
- Lacks granular detail on specific actions.
- Doesn't account for possession retention.
Limitations · Progressive Passes
- Ignores significant progression via carrying the ball.
- Can undervalue defensive players who clear lines effectively without 'progressive' criteria.
- Doesn't capture non-passing methods of advancing play.
- Context of the pass (e.g., under pressure) isn't always clear.
When each is useful
Reach for Deep Progression when
Use Deep Progression when you want to understand how effectively a team moves the ball out of its own half and establishes attacking territory, regardless of the method.
Reach for Progressive Passes when
Opt for Progressive Passes to specifically analyze a team's or player's ability to advance the ball towards the opponent's goal through successful passing actions, breaking opposition lines.
Real football examples
Let's look at how these two metrics tell different stories. Think about a team like Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. They'd typically rank very high in both Deep Progression and Progressive Passes. Their intricate build-up from Ederson, through Rodri and the full-backs, involves numerous short, sharp passes that consistently move the ball up the pitch, qualifying as progressive. They're not just moving the ball far; they're doing it with precision passing.
Now, consider a more direct team, perhaps a classic Sam Allardyce side. They might still show high Deep Progression numbers. A long clearance from the goalkeeper or a centre-back, hoofed up to a target man, could travel 60-70 yards from their own half. That's significant Deep Progression. However, their Progressive Passes might be much lower, because many of those long balls aren't completed to a teammate or don't meet the progressive pass criteria. They're moving the ball forward, but not necessarily through a series of successful, line-breaking passes.
Another example: a dynamic midfielder like Tanguy Ndombele at his best for Tottenham. He might not always lead the league in Progressive Passes, as he often carries the ball through midfield with incredible dribbling. These carries contribute heavily to Deep Progression, as he's moving the ball significant distances upfield from deep areas. But if he then lays off a short pass, that specific pass might not be 'progressive' by definition, even though his overall action was crucial for ball advancement. This highlights how Deep Progression captures his overall contribution to moving the team up the pitch, while Progressive Passes would only account for his passing element.
Frequently asked questions
?Can a player have high Deep Progression but low Progressive Passes?
Absolutely. A player who frequently carries the ball long distances, or makes many long clearances that aren't technically 'passes' to a teammate, would fit this profile. Think of a marauding centre-back or a direct winger.
?Which metric is better for analyzing a defensive midfielder?
It depends on their role. If they're a deep-lying playmaker distributing from the back, Progressive Passes might be more indicative. If they're a ball-winning midfielder who also carries the ball out of danger, Deep Progression could offer a broader view of their impact.
?Do these metrics account for the difficulty of the progression?
Not directly. Neither metric inherently weighs the difficulty of a pass or carry. A simple progressive pass in open space counts the same as a line-breaking pass under pressure. More advanced models might incorporate pressure metrics.
?Are these stats only for attacking players?
No, not at all. Defenders and goalkeepers contribute significantly to Deep Progression, especially through clearances or long passes. Midfielders are often key contributors to Progressive Passes, linking defense to attack.
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