Comparison · Academy

Progressive Passes vs. Progressive Carries: Moving the Ball Forward

Progressive Passes measure how often players advance the ball through passing, highlighting playmaking and ball distribution. Progressive Carries track how frequently players move the ball forward by dribbling, showcasing individual ball progression.

By TheBoxPredict Research·Jul 23, 2026· 5 min read

Progressive Passes

Coach

Short definition

A pass that moves the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal from its furthest point in the last six passes, or into the penalty area.

Primary use

Reach for Progressive Passes when you want to understand how a team or player moves the ball through passing, focusing on distribution and playmaking.

Progressive Carries

Coach

Short definition

A carry (dribble) that moves the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal from its furthest point in the last six passes, or into the penalty area.

Primary use

Use Progressive Carries when analyzing individual ball progression, dribbling ability, and how players bypass opponents by carrying the ball.

Side-by-side comparison

Criterion	Progressive Passes	Progressive Carries
Definition	A pass that moves the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal from its furthest point in the last six passes, or into the penalty area.	A carry (dribble) that moves the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal from its furthest point in the last six passes, or into the penalty area.
What it measures	The ability of a player to break lines and advance play through passing.	The ability of a player to break lines and advance play through dribbling.
Data inputs	Event data: pass origin, destination, and previous pass locations.	Event data: carry start, end points, and previous pass locations.
Typical use	Evaluating deep-lying playmakers, central midfielders, and full-backs involved in build-up.	Assessing dribblers, wingers, and attacking midfielders who drive the ball forward.
Strengths	Highlights players who consistently create dangerous attacking platforms via distribution.	Identifies players who can bypass pressure and advance play through individual skill.
Weaknesses	Doesn't account for the difficulty of the pass or the defensive pressure faced.	Doesn't differentiate between successful dribbles and those that lead to turnovers.
Where it excels	Analyzing team build-up patterns and ball circulation in possession-based teams.	Understanding direct attacking threats and how teams exploit individual dribbling prowess.

Advantages · Progressive Passes

Identifies key distributors who dictate tempo and direction.
Reveals how teams break down defensive blocks through passing sequences.
Useful for evaluating central midfielders and defenders in possession.

Advantages · Progressive Carries

Highlights players who can beat opponents directly with the ball.
Shows individual initiative and ability to create space.
Excellent for assessing wingers and attacking players in transition.

Limitations · Progressive Passes

Can overvalue safe, sideways passes that technically meet the distance criteria.
Doesn't capture the creative impact of a pre-assist or a pass into space.
Context of defensive structure isn't fully captured.

Limitations · Progressive Carries

Doesn't distinguish between a successful dribble and one that loses possession.
Can be inflated by players who carry the ball long distances without penetration.
Doesn't account for the quality of the subsequent action after the carry.

When each is useful

Reach for Progressive Passes when

Reach for Progressive Passes when you want to understand how a team or player moves the ball through passing, focusing on distribution and playmaking.

Reach for Progressive Carries when

Use Progressive Carries when analyzing individual ball progression, dribbling ability, and how players bypass opponents by carrying the ball.

Real football examples

Think about how different players contribute to moving the ball up the pitch. A player like Rodri at Manchester City often racks up high Progressive Passes. He's not necessarily dribbling past three players, but his incisive passes from deep break lines and get the ball into dangerous areas for the likes of Julian Alvarez or Phil Foden. It's all about his vision and execution in distribution.

Compare that to someone like Jeremy Doku, also at Manchester City. Doku's game is built on his explosive dribbling. He'll pick up the ball wide, then carry it past defenders, often deep into the final third or even the penalty box. His Progressive Carries numbers will be much higher, reflecting his direct, individualistic approach to advancing play. He's not looking for the pass; he's looking to beat his man with the ball at his feet.

Another example: Trent Alexander-Arnold often combines both. He'll thread a fantastic Progressive Pass from right-back into the half-space for Mo Salah, but he'll also make those surging Progressive Carries down the flank, driving the ball deep before crossing. Understanding both stats helps paint a complete picture of a player's contribution to attacking phases. A deep-lying midfielder like Declan Rice might have excellent Progressive Passes, but a winger like Bukayo Saka will likely have a higher volume of Progressive Carries because of his role and style of play. Both are crucial for their teams, just in different ways.

Frequently asked questions

?Can a player have high numbers in both Progressive Passes and Progressive Carries?

Absolutely. Full-backs like Alphonso Davies or attacking midfielders who are comfortable both passing and dribbling can excel in both metrics, showing their versatility in ball progression.

?Do these stats account for defensive pressure?

No, these base metrics don't directly account for defensive pressure. A progressive action against a high press is inherently more difficult than against a retreating defense, but the stat itself doesn't differentiate this.

?Are these stats only for attacking players?

Not at all. Defenders and deep-lying midfielders can have high Progressive Pass numbers as they initiate attacks, while even some defensive midfielders might have decent Progressive Carries if they break lines with the ball.

?How do these relate to Expected Goals (xG)?

Both Progressive Passes and Progressive Carries are precursors to attacking opportunities that might lead to shots. While they don't directly measure shot quality like xG, they indicate how effectively a team or player moves the ball into areas where xG can be generated.